Six weeks out from Election Day, the rematch between Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan is playing out like a game that won’t stay decided. The latest numbers, from a DHM Research survey of 600 likely voters taken Sept. 3-9, have Drazan up by a couple of points — a lead so thin it fits comfortably inside the poll’s own margin of error.
The topline; 43% of respondents picked Drazan, 41% picked Kotek, and 3% picked Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith, the only minor third-party name on the ballot this cycle. That leaves a sizable bloc still sitting undecided and up for grabs.
So pollsters then pushed the fence-sitters to lean one way or another – to give an answer, any answer – and Drazan’s total climbed to 45%, Kotek to 43%, and Smith to 4%, with 8% still unwilling to commit.
One could point at the funding for the poll, which came from a Drazan-friendly business group, Grow Oregon. But hey, DHM, they’re a polling firm respected across the political spectrum.
Both camps are already working the refs. Many press accounts have Drazan strategist Trey Rosser framing the numbers as proof his candidate has Oregonians believing in a comeback. Kotek’s team counters that the game clock still has plenty of time left, noting how many voters remain undecided. They are also pointing to history – both the 2018 and 2022 governor’s races looked tight in the closing weeks before Democrats pulled away for comfortable final-score victories.
This is only the second public poll of the cycle. The first, released by Drazan’s own campaign back in July, had her up by 4 in late June; Kotek’s side hasn’t put out numbers of its own, content, it seems, to let the other team do the talking.
The Cook Report and Tea Leaves
The underlying numbers explain why handicappers are moving the line. 59% of respondents disapprove of Kotek’s job performance, with just 37% approving, and 58% say they’re unhappy with the state’s direction – rough sledding for any incumbent seeking a new term. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report noticed too, shifting its rating on the race from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat” in a Sept. 10 analysis, while cautioning that Drazan still has to prove she can hold her footing against national headwinds if she wants to complete the upset.
As for what’s driving voters to the polls, affordability and schools lead the pack by a wide margin, with 87% and 85% of respondents respectively calling them factors in their vote. Housing costs and taxes aren’t far behind, and the once-niche issue of data centers has become a talking point, registering as a concern for half of those surveyed.
Bottom line; with six weeks on the clock, this one could be anybody’s game.
To contact Mike Suarez about this story, email office@corvallisadvocate.com
Photo: Rep. Christine Drazan on the House floor on Monday, Jan. 13, 2025, by Laura Tesler of news partner Oregon Capital Chronicle.
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