Yes, our weekly business column is supposed to hiatus from Thanksgiving to just after New Years – but things do keep happening – like the quarterly forecast from Oregon’s Office of Economic Analysis.
The executive summary starts off with “The economy is rebalancing. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. However inflationary pressures have eased as stronger productivity gains and an increase in the number of Americans looking for work means the labor market is no longer overheated. As wage growth slows, so too will overall inflation in the year ahead.”
We’re not so sure the labor market isn’t still a little overheated, but would agree, it’s moving towards a better balance.
The summary importantly continues on to say, “Oregon’s baseline economic outlook continues to call for the soft landing, and remains effectively unchanged from the prior forecast. Local economic growth is driven by a return to full employment, combined with stronger business investment and productivity gains. Recently released Census data confirm that the economic recovery from the pandemic has been inclusive and broad-based. Looking forward, a modest rebound in migration in the years ahead will allow local businesses to hire and expand at a faster pace than the nation. However, should migration not return as expected, Oregon’s economy will not crater, but rather grow at a slower rate than in the baseline.”
A section down, the analysis reminds readers that the Fed will likely start lowering rates surgically over the second half of next year, if not a little earlier.
Significantly, the report finds Oregon’s economic trends generally following those of the nation.
Racial Equity, and Employment: About those post-pandemic employment gains, the report adds, “In particular, both the racial poverty gap, and racial employment gap remain, but are smaller today than prior to the pandemic.”
Click here for the full report.
Real Estate Market in Corvallis Stays Stable, and Tight
As we approach the upcoming year, the real estate landscapes in Corvallis, Albany, and Lebanon have demonstrated remarkable stability, according to Samantha Alley of Remax//integrity.
“Although there has been a notable decrease in the number of homes sold, a corresponding decline in available housing options has sustained equilibrium. This unique scenario has resulted in a reduction in overall market activity, while the supply of homes for purchase has not experienced a significant surge.”
Alley also said that despite the subdued market dynamics, there remains a persistent and robust competition for homes that are well priced and properly prepared for the market. In recent weeks, there has been a noteworthy decline in interest rates, with a decrease of approximately one percent. Consequently, the conventional 30-year fixed mortgage, accessible to those with excellent credit, now rests comfortably in the low 7’s.
This development brings positive implications for both prospective buyers and sellers. The lowered interest rates contribute to increased affordability, offering a favorable environment for those who were previously priced out of the market in the last six months. Alley said, “Buyers can now re-enter their property search with renewed optimism.”
For the last 90 days, the median sale price in Corvallis has settled to $577,491, but there’s only 1.97 months of inventory currently on the market, about half of what a market balanced between buyers and sellers would look like.
In Albany, the median sale price for the same period was $442,450, and there is currently 1.65 months of available inventory. For Lebanon, the median was $424,826, and there is currently 2.86 months of inventory on the market.
What Oregon Business & Industry Insiders are Reading…
Trade Mission: At least three European alternative-energy companies are considering new manufacturing operations in or around Portland, according to Monique Claiborne, chief executive of Greater Portland Inc. Claiborne spoke with representatives of the companies during a European trade mission, according to The Oregonian.
Timber Revenue: A plan to manage state-owned forests in Oregon and other western states will cut timber harvests by up to 40% and reduce related revenues to rural Oregon counties by as much as $18 million annually, the Oregon Capital Chronicle reports.
CHIPS Applications: The U.S. Department of Commerce is accepting concept plan applications for smaller-scale supply chain projects that support the semiconductor industry. A concept plan is a required step in applying for federal CHIPS Act funding. Smaller-scale projects must have capital investment below $300 million and involve construction or expansion of commercial facilities for semiconductor materials and manufacturing equipment, according to the Portland Business Journal.
Airline Purchase: Alaska Airlines plans to buy Hawaiian Airlines for $1.9 billion, according to the Associated Press. The airlines will retain their own brands.
And, here’s your local business events calendar….
Corvallis Young Pros: 5 to 7 pm, Tuesday, Dec. 19 at 2273 NW Professional Drive, Suite #200. It’s part holiday party and part toy drive – and it’s a great opportunity to mingle and network. This month’s event is hosted by Kernutt Stokes, a CPA firm.
Going Into Business: 6:30 to 7:20 pm, Tuesday, Jan. 9, virtual Zoom class from Linn-Benton Community College Small Business Development Cetner, click here to register. In just one session, you’ll get all the basic information you will need to begin planning your successful business. Rules, regulations, financing, customers, markets, and feasibility will all be discussed in this FREE seminar.
Nonprofit Perspective, Rural Responses to Opioid Use: 12 to 1 pm, Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024 – this is a virtual event, click here to register. Mainstream media portrayals of rural America tend to focus on themes of political conservatism, lack of resources, and exodus of younger adults. But these stereotypes miss innovative work happening in rural areas, and a long-standing capacity among community building and collaboration around important issues like public health. This presentation will provide examples of rural-based care and responses to the opioid crisis in Southeast Washington, from staff of an independent nonprofit. Public-private partnerships, state and federal grant funding, volunteerism, and mobile-based services will be examined for their utility across a few different models of care.
Real Estate License Exam Class: 6 to 8:50 pm, Wednesday, Jan 10 – this is 11 sessions ending Saturdaay, Mar 16. Class will be at the North Albany branch of Coldwell Banker. $695. Have you been thinking about a career as a real estate agent? This class is the first step. An accelerated pre-license HYBRID weekly class, self-study, and a 9-5 pre-test cram session on Saturday, March 16th will get you ready for the Oregon Real Estate Broker’s License Exam. You must attend all class sessions through Zoom or in person and have online access to complete the self-study portion of this course. Click here for more info and to register.
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