A recent study led by Oregon State University researchers suggests that policy decisions related to coastal development will have a greater impact on flooding, erosion and beach access than climate change will.
The study used a modeling program, Envision, to predict and analyse the effects of various variables on coastal communities over the next century, based on data from Tillamook County. Some of these variables included population growth, development, policy narratives and several climate change scenarios. In all, the varied “policy drivers” had a much more variable impact than all of the varied climate change scenarios.
The study investigated six policy drivers in particular, all of which were considered “reasonable actions that might be taken to build community adaptive capacity to climate change.” These included the construction of erosion-resistant buildings, the removal or relocation of buildings along the shoreline, the addition of sand/sediment to eroded beaches, and the protection of coastal environments from human interference.
Some policy changes were predicted to significantly reduce flooding and erosion of coastal buildings, although other actions could exacerbate the problems even further. But what was clear to the researchers was that policy made a big difference.
According to OSU Professor Peter Ruggiero, “The combination of climate change and development pressures has the potential to significantly increase the effects of flooding and erosion on coastal populations,” and the strategies used to adapt have the potential to either improve or exacerbate exposure to hazards.
It is worth noting that the increasing risks and impacts associated with climate change are no small threat to coastal ecosystems and communities. It is, as always, necessary as a society to do what is possible to mitigate and work to repair climate impacts.
On top of climate change though, there are many political and social actions that can be taken to focus on and protect our coastal communities.
By Ardea C. Eichner
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