The state’s second-quarter economic and revenue forecast reported “unprecedented” and “shocking” gains, which could lead to record kicker checks for Oregonians. But economists and legislators are wary.
“While this is welcome news, we must continue planning for the future,” said House Speaker and Corvallis Rep. Dan Rayfield. “And while many of our highest earners continue to do well, I recognize the continued challenges many Oregonians face because of ongoing inflation and believe we need to address the growing wealth divide.”
According to the report, the economic recovery spread across age, gender, race, and geographic demographics, but much of the revenue growth was driven by high-income tax filers and nonwage sources such as investments and people cashing in assets late last year.
Despite kickers this year, payments to the state rose sharply. Oregonians could see $3 billion in personal kicker refunds – taxpayers get a rebate if revenues are 2% over projections.
“Thanks to the kicker, Oregonians will get some of their taxes back and with it, a much-needed break from the increasing burden of inflation,” Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp (R-Bend) said.
Incomes are rising, but inflation costs have largely negated those increases. Americans are still dealing with supply chain shortages, the war in Ukraine, and the impacts of record gas prices.
Other key points in the report include the fact that job vacancies are near record highs, with people becoming self-employed, quitting work entirely, or reducing the number of jobs they hold. Additionally, the March 2022 report forecasted a $2 billion increase in capital gains for the 2021 tax year, but now has shown to more than triple that at $7 billion.
By Peggy Perdue
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